A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
