War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".